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| July 1 - 2 |
Deputies from Prime Minister Andranik
Markarian's Republican Party of Armenia propose new electoral reforms
that would reduce the number of parliamentary seats elected under
the proportional system of party lists. The Republican Party proposals,
included in a larger set of electoral reforms, is passed the next
day in a vote marred by the refusal of forty deputies to participate.
These new proposals replace the December 2000 electoral reforms which
set forth that 37 seats would be elected by a majoritarian system
and 94 seats by a proportional system. The new measure calls for 56
seats to be allocated under the majoritarian system and 75 seats under
the proportional system. Nearly all major political parties criticize
the new proposals as an effort by the Republican Party to maintain
their majority in the upcoming parliamentary elections. |
| July 4 |
Finance Minister Vardan Khachatrian
reports that his ministry is projecting a 10-12 percent increase in
Armenia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with substantial gains
in tax collection allowing the government to increase debt repayments
by 1.5 billion dram ($2.56 million). The government also reports that
industrial output in the country grew by over 11 percent, the highest
increase in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). European
Union (EU) officials announce the same day that Armenia will receive
the second, and final, EU tranche of its annual $9.4 million budget
supplement, a subsidy to be used to cover the Kocharian government's
spending on social and agriculture programs. |
| July 8 |
During a press conference in Yerevan,
State Revenues Minister Yervand Zakharian reports that the unofficial
"shadow economy" remains a significant challenge to the government
despite recent efforts to enforce tax collection. Although the overall
level of tax revenue collected has risen by nearly 25 percent in the
first six months of the year, the underground economy is estimated
to represent 40 percent of all economic activity. |
| July 9 |
State customs department official
Armen Avetisian announces the imposition of new export controls as
part of the government's response to last May's sanctions imposed
by the United States on an Armenian company and individual for exporting
dual-purpose technology to an Iranian company. Armenian officials
defended their allowing this trade by explaining that this private
sale to Iran was permitted because the exports were not deemed to
include sensitive technology. |
| July 9 |
Visiting Council of Europe Secretary-General
Walther Schwimmer meets with President Robert Kocharian, Foreign Minister
Vardan Oskanian and Parliamentary Speaker Armen Khachatrian in Yerevan.
The Council of Europe official discusses issues related to Armenian-Turkish
relations, the status of Armenia's compliance with the obligations
related to its Council of Europe membership, and the mediation effort
of the Nagorno Karabagh conflict with his Armenian hosts. There is
a significant dispute between the Council of Europe and Armenia related
to last month's decision by the Armenian Parliament to retain the
partial use of capital punishment in some cases, a violation of Armenia's
January 2001 membership requirements. |
| July 9 - 10 |
Iranian Energy Minister Habibolla
Bitaraf meets with President Robert Kocharian and Energy Minister
Armen Movsisian during a three-day visit to Yerevan. The Iranian minister
reviews plans to implement several bilateral agreements in the energy
sector that were reached previously. One agreement calls for the seasonal
exchange of electricity, with Armenia providing Iran with energy in
the summer and receiving energy from Iran in the winter. Additional
bilateral agreements include the joint development of a $35 million
hydro-electrical power facility on the Arax River. |
| July 10 |
Protestors hold a demonstration at
the Russian embassy in Yerevan demanding that the Russian government
adopt measures to protect the Armenian population in Moscow. The demonstration
follows an attack on ethnic Armenians in the town of Krasnarmeysk
outside of Moscow by an armed gang three days earlier. |
| July 10 |
Commenting on his May 2000 dismissal
of former Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian, President Kocharian
explains that the former defense minister was "incompetent" and responsible
for the military accumulating significant debt during his tenure.
The president's statement follows recent criticism by several opposition
figures who allege that the dismissal was tied to Harutiunian's refusal
to support a proposal to settle the Nagorno Karabagh conflict through
a territorial exchange with Azerbaijan. |
| July 11 |
Several leading parliamentarians protest
the arrest and assault of fellow Deputy Gevorg Hakobian, who was reportedly
beaten by police after he was arrested for drunk driving. Hakobian
lodges a formal complaint with Prime Minister Andranik Markarian,
demanding an investigation and accusing Yerevan police chief Ashot
Gizirian of participating in the assault. |
| July 1 - 12 |
"Armenia is on the right track" to
meet its obligations as a member of the Council of Europe (CE), its
Secretary-General Walter Schwimmer said while visiting Yerevan this
week. Speaking at a news conference after meeting with Armenian leaders,
Schwimmer said he saw "good will" in the Armenian Government and parliament
to work toward abolition of the death penalty and to fight corruption.
He also urged Armenia to continue to search for a peaceful solution
to the Karabakh conflict and not be satisfied with the current status
quo. President Robert Kocharian told Schwimmer that Armenia is resolute
in meeting its obligations and has made a strategic choice for integration
into the European family of nations. |
| July 1 - 12 |
The Nagorno Karabakh Republic will
hold scheduled presidential elections this August 11. They will be
Karabakh's fourth since its parliament instituted the office of the
presidency in 1994. The incumbent President Arkady Ghoukasian is running
for reelection and has received the endorsement of NKR's four major
political parties: the Democratic Artsakh, Armenian Revolutionary
Federation, Communists and Democratic Liberals. Ghoukasian was elected
president by a landslide in September 1997. Declared candidates include
the former Chairman of Parliament, non-party candidate Artur Tovmasian,
Christian Democratic Party's Albert Ghazarian, Unity organization's
Grigori Afanasian and Constitutional Rights Union's Hrant Khachatrian.
Candidate registration will take place next week. |
| July 1 - 12 |
The proposed 1,100-mile pipeline to
carry oil from the Caspian to the Mediterranean Sea has come under
fire from a coalition of several dozen non-government organizations
from thirty-seven countries. In a letter sent last month to the World
Bank President, as well as the directors of other publicly-funded
credit institutions in Europe, Japan and the United States, the NGO's
criticized their reported plans to use taxpayers' money to finance
up to 70 percent of the estimate $3 billion cost of the controversial
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. The organizations' press release
quotes BP chief executive John Brown as telling the Financial Times
that the project would not be possible without "free public money"
from interested governments. If approved, the lending project will
reportedly become the World Bank's largest single investment.
The BP-led project is further criticized for its potential to exacerbate
existing tensions by "militarizing the corridor running from the Caspian
to the Mediterranean," fueling corrupt regimes and threatening a negative
long-term impact on the environment. The sixty-four organizations,
most of them based in Eastern and Western Europe, include five NGO's
from Georgia - the proposed transit state for the pipeline. Earlier
reports suggested that the consortium hopes to begin construction
of the line later this or early next year. |
| July 1 - 12 |
Krasnoarmeisk, a town of 27,000 people
thirty miles northwest of Moscow, was the scene of an anti-Armenian
mob attack earlier this week that left close to twenty people injured,
eight of them seriously. The incident described as a "pogrom" in both
the Russian and Armenian press, renewed concerns over a growing tide
of xenophobia in Russia, targeted mainly at recent immigrants from
the Caucasus. But officials in both Russia and Armenia have sought
to downplay the incident and refused to describe it as an inter-ethnic
conflict. Russia's Information Minister Andrey Barkovsky said the
attack was an act of hooliganism. Speaker of the Armenian Parliament
Armen Khachatrian called on the Russian Government to prevent any
further attacks that "cast a shadow on our friendly relations."
The events in Krasnoarmeisk were reportedly sparked by a brawl in
a local bar, in which an ethnic Armenian of Russian citizenship was
detained for allegedly stabbing a local resident. Later that day,
dozens of local youths armed with knives and sticks took off to the
street where many local Armenians live. Beatings and fights ensued
for about four hours and the local police reportedly refused to intervene
to break them up. Several individuals described as "organizers" of
the mob attack were arrested.
The incident was followed by demands from local residents to expel
all "illegal immigrants" from Krasnoarmeisk. Similar demands have
been made in other parts of Russia, particularly in the southern city
of Krasnodar, where local Armenians were also targeted. In a statement
this week Krasnoarmeisk Mayor Vitaly Pashentsev described the event
as a "tragedy" for his "multi-ethnic city." He further criticized
police for their slow response and pledged to prevent similar incidents
in the future. |
| July 1 - 12 |
Head of the Azerbaijani delegation
to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and
son of the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev sent a letter to the
PACE leadership urging it to replace its current envoy in Azerbaijan,
Swiss Parliamentarian, Andreas Gross. A member of the monitoring commission,
Gross is one of the PACE members who monitor fulfillment of the obligations
Azerbaijan assumed when it joined the European human rights organization
a year and a half ago. He has criticized the Azerbaijani Government
for its failure to free political prisoners, a recent police crackdown
in Nardaran and other undemocratic practices.
Azerbaijani officials have in turn accused Gross of being "pro-Armenian."
A senior member of the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party, Hassan Mirzoyev
urged the country's leadership to physically assault Gross should
he ever arrive in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister has said
that his government has officially refused to work with Gross citing
his "bias." A member of the Azerbaijani delegation to PACE Rafael
Husseinov recalled that in the past he was successful in silencing
another critical voice, a head of the PACE secretariat, suggesting
Gross may also cave in under pressure.
Gross has already been forced to cancel a planned visit to Baku later
this week after Azerbaijan's Ambassador to the CE said he would not
be met by any government officials. He insisted that the Azerbaijani
Government can have no say in the selection of a PACE official that
monitors its democratic record. |
| July 1 - 12 |
As we go to press, ailing Turkish
Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit indicated he may resign, if defections
from the three-party governing coalition he heads continue. Ecevit's
comments came after a major split within his Democratic Left Party
(DSP) and resignations of Deputy Prime Minister Husamettin Ozkan and
Foreign Minister Ismail Cem. The 77-year old Ecevit has been seriously
ill for the past two months, with two DSP factions, one led by the
Prime Minister's wife Rahsan and another by senior government members
such as Ozkan and Cem, battling for control. Junior coalition partners
- the Nationalist Action and Motherland parties - have also called
for fresh elections earlier this week.
The Ecevit Government's popularity sustained a major blow after the
collapse of the Turkish economy last year. The Prime Minister and
his coalition allies have since resisted calls for fresh elections,
weary that none of them would be able to win seats in a new parliament.
Latest polls indicate that forty percent of Turks are undecided as
to which party to support, with the Islamist-leaning Justice and Development
Party supported by many of the rest. The ongoing political instability
is also threatening the International Monetary Fund's $16-billion
bailout of the Turkish economy - the largest ever in the Fund's history.
Foreign Minister Cem, a supporter of Turkey's integration with the
European Union, has been now replaced by the more conservative former
Cyprus Affairs Minister Sukru Sina Gurel. In his five years as Turkey's
Foreign Minister Cem has been credited with a relative improvement
of the tense relations with Greece. Beginning earlier this year he
also held three meetings with the Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian. While their talks produced no tangible changes in Turkey's
hard-line policy towards Armenia, they were seen as a rare opportunity
for a high-level dialogue. In a statement this week, Armenia's Foreign
Ministry expressed hope that bilateral diplomatic contacts continue
"regardless of political developments in Turkey." |
| July 14 |
Armenian Revolutionary Federation
(ARF) candidate Hakob Matilian wins an uncontested seat in a parliamentary
by-election. Matilian first won the seat in a May 19th election that
was later
invalidated for voting irregularities. The election of the ARF candidate
brings the party's total number of seats in the parliament to ten.
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| July 17 |
A bilateral agreement calling for
several government owned enterprises to be exchanged for the cancellation
of its debt to Russia is signed in Yerevan by Armenian Defense Minister
Serge
Sarkisian and Russian Industry, Science and Technology Minister Ilya
Klebanov. The two ministers, serving as co-chairmen of the Armenian-Russian
intergovernmental commission, state that the agreement will write
off $98 million in Armenian debt. The deal is sharply criticized by
People's Party of Armenia leader Stepan Demirchian and National Democratic
Union party leader and former premier Vazgen Manukian. The long-delayed
agreement is now subject to parliamentary ratification by both countries.
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| July 18 |
The current chair of the Council
of Europe's Council of Ministers, Luxembourg Foreign Minister Lydie
Polfer, meets with President Kocharian and Foreign Minister Vardan
Oskanian in Yerevan
and discusses the status of reforms required as part of Armenia's
membership in the Council of Europe. The visiting official reminds
the Armenian leaders of their obligation to end the use of capital
punishment in the country and, in a meeting with parliamentarians,
reviews the status of judicial and political reform. |
| July 12 - 19 |
The ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict
continues to impact the Armenian community of the Holy Land. According
to available reports, the command of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF)
deployed in the occupied West Bank has issued confiscation orders
for the Armenian Patriarchate's land and properties located north
of Bethlehem, which was the site of heavy fighting earlier this year.
However, conflicting reports suggest that the property has not been
seized, but Israeli troops have trespassed. Karen Mirzoyan, the Armenian
Foreign Ministry official responsible for Middle East Affairs, said
this week that Israeli officials have explained the situation "temporary"
and necessary in order to build a separation fence between the adjacent
Arab community and a Jewish settlement. Several Armenian political
parties and organizations have condemned Israel and appealed to the
Armenian government and church leaders to treat it as an act of "aggression."
But Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian refused to assess the Israeli
move while negotiations are underway between the Israeli government
and the Armenian Church. He said the Foreign Ministry was closely
following the developments. |
| July 12 - 19 |
Senior officials from Armenia and
Russia agreed in principle this week to swap several Armenian assets
in exchange for an annulment of the $98 million Armenian debt. The
deal comes after year-long negotiations conducted by the co-chairmen
of the Russian-Armenian committee on economic cooperation, Defense
Minister Serge Sargsian and Industry and Technology Minister Ilya
Klebanov. The list of Armenian enterprises includes the largest thermal
power plant at Hrazdan, the Mars electronics plant, and two Yerevan
technological research institutes. Before their transfer takes place,
now planned for the end of the year, an independent auditor must evaluate
the price of the assets and the deal must be endorsed by the two country's
parliaments.
Armenia's current debt to Russia has accumulated over the past decade,
largely as a result of the Armenian energy sector's dependence on
Russian raw materials, such as natural gas and nuclear fuel, for the
country's largest electricity generators - nuclear and thermal power
plants. The deal has been criticized in Armenia as increasing the
country's dependence on Russia and potentially delaying plans for
energy diversification. Russian companies already control Armenia's
gas distribution networks and have also tried to take over its nuclear
power plant and the electricity distribution networks. The Armenian
government has so far resisted the latter moves.
The current debt-for-property deal has been defended by the government
as necessary to revive Armenia's electronics industry, which in the
Soviet days was closely tied to enterprises in Russia, but critics
claim the deal does not commit Russia to a specific investment schedule.
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| July 12 - 19 |
Armenia will need four more years
of strong growth to return the economy to its pre-independence size,
Gohar Minasian, an official with the International Monetary Fund,
predicted this week. Previous estimates have put the date of recovery
to 2010. But Minasian and other experts, speaking at the Armenian
Center for National and International Studies (ACNIS), said long-term
growth prospects will remain questionable, as long as education and
the social sphere remain sparsely funded and Armenia's best and brightest
look for job opportunities abroad.
Recent macroeconomic figures released by the Armenian government show
the robust economic growth continuing in the first half of the year.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown
by at least 10 percent, compared to January-June of 2001. Armenia's
largely privatized economy continues to expand the processing, manufacture
and export of goods at a significant rate: in January-May of this
year industrial growth reached over 11 percent, the strongest among
the Newly Independent States, with exports jumping nearly 50 percent.
In the first half of this year, successes in diamond processing and
metallurgy account for much of the increase. Belgium, Israel, Russia
and the United States are Armenia's top export destinations.
Experts say this growth comes from a low base and is limited to a
few sectors and cannot bring immediate substantial benefits for Armenia's
population. Even when Armenia recovers to pre-independence levels,
they said, the composition of its economy will be significantly different,
with a minority controlling much of its wealth. While the government's
revenue collection has improved significantly in recent years, many
companies are said to continue to under-report profits and avoid paying
taxes in full. |
| July 12 - 19 |
Threatened with a serious crisis
in relations with the Council of Europe (CE), Azerbaijani officials
were forced earlier this week to reverse their decision not to allow
an official envoy of the body's Parliamentary Assembly (PACE) to visit
the country. Andreas Gross, a member of the Swiss Parliament and PACE,
has been charged to evaluate Azerbaijan's fulfillment of obligations
its government assumed after joining the CE in early 2001. Over the
past month, Gross became a target of pro-government and nationalist
circles in Azerbaijan who claim that he is under the "influence of
ethnic Armenians" and his criticism of Azerbaijan's undemocratic practices
is a product of that "bias." These arguments are rooted in the Swiss
parliamentarian's public acknowledgement of the Armenian Genocide
and his refusal to side with Azerbaijan on the Karabakh issue.
Last week, Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev and members of its parliamentary
delegation to PACE said they were breaking off all contact with Gross,
forcing him to postpone a monitoring visit to Azerbaijan. But following
telephone negotiations between PACE Secretary General Bruno Haller
and Ilham Aliyev, son of the Azerbaijani President who heads the country's
delegation to PACE, Gross was allowed to enter Baku earlier this week.
However, most Azerbaijani officials have refused to meet him. The
government has also reportedly used groups such as the Society of
the Blind and a local Jewish community to disrupt Gross' meetings
with local human rights activists, while members of a nationalist
opposition branded him an "enemy of the Turks."
CE's Secretary General Walter Schwimmer this week defended Gross as
"experienced" and "objective." He criticized the Azerbaijani government's
plan to hold a constitutional referendum next month without consulting
with international organizations. Plans for the referendum were only
made public in the last few weeks and local pundits believe they are
designed to strengthen the governing elite's hold on power and to
further shut out the opposition from the political process. A spokesman
for the U.S. State Department has also expressed concern over "the
potential impact of the referendum," which opposition groups are planning
to boycott. |
| July 20 |
Members of the former ruling Armenian
National Movement (ANM) meet outside of Yerevan to discuss political
strategy in preparation for the 2003 parliamentary and presidential
elections.
Former President Levon Ter Petrosian attends the meeting and is rumored
to be considering a bid to run against incumbent President Robert
Kocharian. Former Deputy Parliamentary Speaker Ara Sahakian announces
that the party seeks to gain at least ten percent of the seats in
parliament. |
| July 22 - 23 |
President Kocharian issues a decree
demoting former Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian from lieutenant
general to major general. The move follows recent criticism of the
former
defense minister by the president, alleging widespread mismanagement
and incompetence during his tenure. The opposition criticizes the
demotion as a blatant attempt to marginalize any
challengers to the president after the former defense minister recently
announced his support for the opposition. |
| July 19 - 26 |
Political organizations across Armenia's
political spectrum continue to actively plan for local, presidential
and parliamentary elections, expected to take place in that order.
Incumbent President Robert Kocharian and parliament member Artashes
Geghamian, leader of the opposition National Accord Party (AMK), are
for now the only politicians to have announced their plans to run
for presidency. Kocharian has already received the backing of several
right-of-center and centrist groups. The Armenian Revolutionary Federation
has so far held off an official endorsement, but is expected to follow
suit. While Geghamian is still seen as the most popular opposition
politician in Armenia, other opposition groups have urged him to withdraw
and support a "united opposition candidate."
Such a candidate has so far failed to materialize. The financially
strong Republic and People's parties, which have been at the center
of the opposition efforts after splitting from the government in 2000,
have not yet produced presidential candidates. Communists and Socialist
Armenia Union are in a similar situation. Meanwhile, two politicians
who stood at the helm of the Armenian reform movement of the late
1980s and subsequently became bitter rivals, the ex-President (1991-98)
Levon Ter-Petrossian and ex-Prime Minister (1990-91) Vazgen Manukian,
are reportedly weighing their chances.
Ter-Petrossian has remained largely out of the public eye since his
resignation in February 1998 and his main political vehicle, the Armenian
Pan-National Movement, gathered just over one percent of the vote
in the 1999 parliamentary elections. But in recent months, Ter-Petrossian
has met with several foreign diplomats and his closest allies have
suggested that he may run. The ex-President himself has made no comments
on the issue. Manukian, who came close to defeating Ter-Petrossian
in the 1996 elections, but was only a distant third in the 1998 poll,
said this week his nomination would depend on the popularity of his
political views. |
| July 19 - 26 |
The Central Election Commission (CEC)
of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic last week certified that four presidential
nominees have collected at least 1,500 signatures each and registered
them as candidates for the August 11 elections. The candidates include:
a co-chairman of the Unity Organization Grigori Afanasian, chairman
of the Christian Democratic Party Albert Ghazarian, incumbent President
Arkady Ghoukasian and the Artsakh State University Professor Artur
Tovmasian. Leader of the Constitutional Rights Union Hrant Khachatrian
withdrew his bid prior to the registration process and endorsed Tovmasian.
Ghoukasian, backed by the Democratic Artsakh and Armenian Revolutionary
Federation, appears well positioned to win reelection. The two groups
are seen as the strongest in NKR, together controlling twenty-two
seats in the thirty-three-seat Karabakh legislature. Tovmasian has
the highest profile among the challengers, having served as Chairman
of the Karabakh parliament from 1996 to 1997. While they are lesser
known, both Afanasian and Ghazarian are viewed as supporters of the
ex-Defense Minister Samvel Babayan and strong critics of the incumbent
president.
In addition to differences on political and economic issues, the candidates
have different views on ways to achieve a settlement in the conflict
with Azerbaijan. While the incumbent president has expressed readiness,
in case of an agreement over Karabakh's status, to withdraw forces
from some of the Azerbaijani districts, now comprising a security
belt around NKR, other candidates are more reluctant. And at least
one of the contenders, Ghazarian, has called for unconditional reunification
with Armenia. Ghoukasian himself told an Armenian newspaper this week
that it is likely that "Karabakh will seek official recognition from
Armenia, as a first step towards international recognition" should
the current situation that leaves Karabakh's international status
undefined continue much longer. He did not set a time limit.
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| July 19 - 26 |
President Heydar Aliyev admitted
this week that his recent comments about the possible exchange of
Meghri for Nagorno Karabakh were just "diplomacy" and designed to
provoke a "strong reaction" in Armenia. The Armenian leaders have
strongly denied that a land swap was ever contemplated. Aliyev made
the admission during a rare two-and-a-half hour interview with editors
of the Azerbaijani press. Aliyev said that resolution of the Karabakh
issue was the "meaning of his life" and that even as a leader of Soviet
Azerbaijan he sought to "change the demography" of Karabakh. "I tried
to increase the number of Azerbaijanis and decrease the number of
Armenians in Karabakh," he said. Aliyev added that the option of starting
a new war in Karabakh has not been completely discounted, but warned
of potential hardships any resumption of conflict may bring. A former
U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Richard Kauzlarich (1994-97) offered
a similar view this week. He said that under current conditions, Azerbaijan
would suffer even greater casualties than in the early 1990s, and
would still fail to achieve a military success. |
| July 29 |
Armenia's Deputy Foreign Minister
Tatul Markarian and his Azerbaijani counterpart Araz Azimov meet in
Prague under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe's (OSCE) Minsk Group. The meeting of the deputy foreign
ministers, their second in three months, replaces the previous summit
meetings between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents. |
| July 31 |
The head of the Armenian Apostolic
Church, Catholicos Garegin II, issues a statement calling on Israel
to return Armenian Church property in the West bank. The seized Armenian
Church property, a 20-hectare (50-acre) tract on the outskirts of
Bethlehem, was seized by the Israeli military for use in the construction
of a 350-kilometer "security wall" separating Israel from the West
Bank. The Armenian Church property is maintained by the Armenian Patriarchate
of Jerusalem, which filed a lawsuit challenging the seizure last week.
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| July 31 |
Armenian Deputy Minister of Industry
and Economic Development Ara Petrosian reports that the level of tourism
in Armenia is expected to match or exceed last year's record-breaking
level. The projected 120,000 tourists for 2002 is an important source
of revenue for the Armenian economy. Last year's influx of tourists
was attributed to diasporan Armenians traveling to Armenia to celebrate
the 1700th anniversary of Christianity. |
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