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| May 2 |
Leaders
of Armenia’s political parties last week began campaigning for the
National Assembly elections set for May 25. News reports suggest that
they are encountering a public that is weary of yet another election
coming just two months after the grueling and divisive campaign for
presidency. Opposition parties, which at the peak of the presidential
campaign rallied tens of thousands people for days, collected less
than a thousand supporters at a Yerevan rally this week.
Few polls have been published so far, but one survey by the Vox Populi
organization confirms these reports. A poll of 638 Yerevan residents
(known to favor opposition more than a rural population) showed a
decline in popularity of nearly all of Armenia’s leading political
parties. The Country of Law (Orinats Yerkir) party, which supported
Robert Kocharian’s re-election and has built an image as an effective
lobbyist for Armenia’s small businessmen and underpaid government
employees, is the only exception.
The poll also suggests that composition of the next Parliament will
not be significantly different from the current one. The opposition
Justice (Artarutiun) Bloc, which unites most parties and groups that
supported Stepan Demirchian’s presidential bid, leads the poll with
just over 20 percent. But such a showing would only marginally add
to the 20 seats it now controls in the 131-member Parliament. Artarutiun
is followed by Orinats Yerkir with just under 15 percent, which could
potentially triple its current five-member faction. Another party
likely to increase its representation is the opposition National Unity
Party of Artashes Geghamian, which is third in the poll with under
nine percent, suggesting that it could possibly double its own five-member
faction. The poll ranked the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutiun)
and the ruling Republican Party fourth and fifth with just five to
six percent each. Considering these parties’ relative strength in
the majoritarian districts, these results would allow both parties
to maintain the ten to twenty-member factions they now have. Non-partisan
candidates are likely to capture the vast majority of the 56 majoritarian
districts. (Sources: Armenia This Week 3-28; Arminfo 4-12, 5-2; Noyan
Tapan 4-14, 28, 29; RFE/RL Armenia Report 4-26, 28, 30; Haykakan Zhamanak
5-1) |
| May 2 |
The
influence of Armenia’s opposition leaders reached an all-time high
during the prolonged presidential campaign in the first three months
of this year, according to an expert opinion poll published this week.
Since 1998, the Moscow-based Panorama expert information center, which
conducts surveys throughout the former Soviet republics, has regularly
asked Armenia’s leading television and print media editors who they
believe to be the country’s most politically influential individuals.
Names of the top 10 are:
Apr. ’03 score Dec. ‘00 score (rank)
1. Robert Kocharian 93.9 98.8 (1)
2. Serge Sargsian 81.5 92.2 (2)
3. Stepan Demirchian 61.5 16.3 (9)
4. Andranik Margarian 53.0 51.7 (3)
5. Artashes Geghamian 37.7 28.5 (5)
6. Artashes Tumanian 25.4 6.7 (18)
7. Vartan Oskanian 24.6 30.2 (4)
8. Aram Sargsian 20.8 9.8 (11)
9. Gagik Harutiunian 15.4 N/A
10. Hrant Margarian 12.3 12.8(10)
The poll results closely mirror the election-related political developments
in Armenia, particularly, the emergence of People’s Party chairman
Stepan Demirchian as the main opposition presidential candidate. Demirchian,
in addition to increasing his own ranking, overtook another opposition
leader National Unity Party chairman Artashes Geghamian and slightly
imparted the rankings of President Robert Kocharian and Defense Minister
Serge Sargsian, Armenia’s most influential politicians for three years
in a row.
The influence of the President’s chief of staff Artashes Tumanian
could be explained both by his current job and alliance with the Armenian
Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutiun). Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian’s influence peaked at the height of peace negotiations with
Azerbaijan, but began to decline when the country’s attention shifted
to elections.
One of Armenia’s veteran politicians, Gagik Harutiunian increased
his standing when lawsuits challenging presidential election results
were filed with the Constitutional Court, which he chairs.
Outside the Top 10, Moscow-based businessman Ara Abrahamian, who has
made large investments in Armenia and backs the pro-Kocharian Democratic
Liberal (Ramkavar Azatakan) party, registered the most dramatic rise.
Not ranked previously, he is in the eleventh spot with 10.8 points.
Also new to the poll, political scientists Igor Muradian and Andranik
Mihranian, who back Kocharian, and parliamentarian Viktor Dallakian,
who recently left the ruling Republican Party and joined the opposition,
are ranked fourteenth, fifteenth and twentieth, respectively. Meanwhile,
the influence of ex-President Levon Ter-Petrossian and ex-Prime Minister
Vazgen Manukian, who remain in the Top 20, continued to decline steadily.
(Sources: Armenia This Week 9-27-02; Azg 4 |
| May
30 |
The
Kennedy clan had a motto that fits the relationship now being worked
out between Turkey and the U.S.: "Forgive but don't forget."
The
mistake of the Turkish generals was to conclude that America would
never attack Saddam without Turkey's willingness to provide the bases
to launch a northern front.
The
mistake of the newly elected Islamic government in Ankara was to believe
this notion and think that it could charge the U.S. a whopping fee
for transit of our soldiers.
The
mistake of Turkish public opinion was to indulge in the deep-seated
paranoia toward the Iraqi Kurds, suspecting that they would set up
an independent state that would lead to the breakup of Turkey. That
led to a warning that our Iraqi Kurdish allies would be attacked as
they returned home to Kirkuk, a threat that was Turkey's most serious
blunder.
The
U.S. made a mistake, too, in assuming that the Turks, long a stalwart
ally against communism, would again act like an ally in helping us
rid the area of a dangerous tyrant. We failed to grasp that the new
government was run by political amateurs.
Result:
The Turks are left standing there, hands in empty pockets, while the
winning coalition is pacifying and rebuilding their large oil-rich
neighbor to the south. Postwar anti-Islamic mutterings are being heard
in the army, which averages one coup per decade; that would be another
mistake.
The
other day a delegation of Turkish business leaders and journalists
dropped by The Times's Washington bureau en route to a date at the
Pentagon.
They
practiced their pitch on me: You used to be a great friend of Turkey's,
and we run your column in our papers. So what if there were a few
regrettable misunderstandings during a political transition ? does
this have to mean it's all over between us? You know we're too proud
to apologize, but it's in the U.S. interest to work with the only
secular Muslim democratic state that can be an example to the new
Iraq.
Unspoken
was their most persuasive argument: We have this big army, Patton
tanks and F-5 fighters modernized by Israeli industry, sitting right
next to unpoliced Iraq ? with nothing to do. Turkey may be late, but
could still be helpful.
I
told these articulate Turks ? all good guys ? that Israeli friends
had been noodging me to get off Turkey's back for months, but I believe
that actions must have consequences, and we can't immediately go back
to business as usual.
I
know not what course the Bush administration may take, but here's
my new take on Turkey:
First,
opinion-leading Turks should assuage their public's unreasonable fears
of Kurdish separatism. Stop inflammatory talk of intervention in northern
Iraq. End internal suppression of the Kurdish culture and language.
At
the same time, Americans should assure the Turks that we will maintain
a military and intelligence presence in Iraqi Kurdistan and will work
with the democratic Barzani-Talabani Kurds to jail any P.K.K. terrorists
in that autonomous region of federated Iraq. We should quickly set
up courts to adjudicate claims of Kurds and the Turkoman minority
against lands stolen by Saddam in his ethnic cleansing.
Turkey
should then offer a brigade of its army - about 4,000 soldiers - to
be embedded in the Polish command in southern Iraq to help establish
and keep order. Arabs may not welcome this at first, but Turkish troops
have proved to be effective peacekeepers in Bosnia and Afghanistan.
The
coalition should graciously accept Ankara's offer, and a portion of
the Iraqi oil repayment we foolishly promised to Russia for debts
incurred by Saddam should be used to subsidize the brigade's cost.
Then
we should let economic nature take its course. "A free-enterprise,
democratic Iraq would be of enormous economic benefit to Turkey, and
vice versa," says an administration stalwart across the river.
Wilsonian
hawks want to get across a message that is both diplomatically adept
and politically realistic: Forgive but don't forget. Rewards flow
first to nations that join our coalitions and march by our side, but
we are not so vindictive as to punish anyone for having failed to
cooperate if it means punishing ourselves.
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| May
30 |
Republicans
and their non-partisan allies won over one-third of the seats in last
Sunday’s parliamentary vote, described by Western observers as
an improvement on previous elections. The Central Election Commission
(CEC) reported that about half of Armenia’s registered voters
participated in the election, down from nearly two-thirds, who voted
in presidential elections two months ago. A package of constitutional
amendments offered by President Robert Kocharian was defeated, after
it failed to gather support of at least one-third of all voters (or
over 750,000 votes). Armenia’s opposition groups actively opposed
the proposals, which included the removal of a ban on dual citizenship,
expanded judiciary independence and limitations on presidential powers.
The
Republican Party (HHK), led by Prime Minister Andranik Margarian and
Defense Minister Serge Sargsian, is now likely to maintain its control
of the cabinet, but will have to share power with other parties in
order to achieve a majority in parliament. The centrist Country of
Law Party (Orinats Yerkir, OYeK) led by parliamentarian Artur Baghdasarian
also did well winning roughly 20 seats in the 131-member Parliament.
Twenty-one parties and blocs competed to overcome the five percent
threshold vying for a proportional share of seventy-five seats. A
few hundred individual candidates ran for the fifty-six district seats.
Below is a distribution of seats in the newly elected National Assembly,
compared to the outgoing parliament:
Party
2003 1999 Parliament
(as of May 2003)
Republicans 39 31
Non-Party 24 38
Orinats Yerkir 20 8
Justice Bloc 17 16
Dashnaktsutiun 13 10
National Unity 9 9
United Labor 6 1
Democratic Liberal Union 1 2
People's Democratic Party 0 5
Communist Party 0 5
Reformed Communists 0 2
Total 129* 127**
*Elections
in two districts will be re-run in 20 days.
**There were four vacancies in the outgoing parliament.
While non-partisan candidates dominated in 24 of 56 district races,
Republicans did reasonably well, winning in at least sixteen and losing
in ten, while Orinats Yerkir won in eight of the districts. Overall,
incumbents lost to challengers or did not run in about half of all
districts.
In
proportional voting, Republicans led with over 23 percent (about 278,000
votes), followed by the opposition Justice Bloc with about 14 percent
(161,000), Orinats Yerkir – 12 percent (146,000), Dashnaks –
11 percent (135,000), the National Unity Party – nine percent
(104,000), and the United Labor Party, a political newcomer, with
less than six percent (68,000). Another recently established party,
the Democratic Liberal Union, was shy of the five percent threshold
by several thousand votes. Closely repeating the pattern set during
the presidential elections, opposition parties did better in the capital,
Aragatsotn and Tavush provinces, while three major pro-presidential
parties collected more than 50 percent of the vote in Syunik, Lori,
Armavir, Ararat and Gegharkunik.
The
Justice Bloc (AB), led by former presidential candidate Stepan Demirchian,
suffered the biggest upset. AB includes Demirchian’s People’s
Party, former Prime Minister Aram Sargsian’s Party of the Republic,
Vazgen Manukian’s National Democratic Union and several smaller
groups. AB’s leaders predicted they would win at least one-third
of the new parliament or 44 seats, but in fact won only about 17.
Other “traditional” parties were even less successful. The
Democratic Liberal (Ramkavar Azatakan) and Communist Parties, Self-Determination
Union and Armenian Pan-National Movement collected between 7,500 and
35,000 votes and will not be represented in parliament.
The
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutiun) and Artashes Geghamian’s
National Unity Party maintained or even slightly increased the number
of seats they hold in parliament. While, the United Labor Party, recently
created by businessman and outgoing parliament member Gurgen Arsenian,
won only a modest representation, its success was probably the biggest
surprise of the election.
Observers
from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
and the Council of Europe said that “there was undoubted progress
towards meeting international standards” of holding elections.
They noted the balanced election coverage by public television and
radio, improved election lists and transparency of the vote count.
However, the observers, urged Armenia’s leaders to “demonstrate
more determination” by investigating and punishing individuals
engaged in electoral fraud and making election commissions more independent
“in order that future elections meet international standards.”
(Sources: CEC http://par03.elections.am/?&lan=eng;
Organization for OSCE report www.osce.org/odihr/elections/
field_activities/2003armenia_pe; Arminfo 5-25, 26, 27, 28, 29; Noyan
Tapan 5-25, 26, 27, 28, 29) |
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