TodaysZaman.com, by Amanda Paul -- At the end of last week I moderated a roundtable discussion on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and prospects for a solution. I started off feeling somewhat unoptimistic and ended up feeling totally depressed. It would seem that the much talked about window of opportunity that had apparently opened up in the aftermath of the Georgia-Russia war, with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and the international community having a greater understanding of the need not to allow these so-called “frozen conflicts” to fester, has almost been slammed shut, which is very unfortunate.

The Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders are currently negotiating a set of “basic principles” within the framework of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Mink Group, and while it would seem that over the past 18 months there has been some good progress, this all seems to have been put into jeopardy due to recent developments in the region. The Armenian speaker made it very clear that Turkey’s decision to link the process of Turkey’s rapprochement with Armenia to the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem has seriously affected progress on the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia and that there is an urgent need to delink the two processes. If this is not done, not only will the ongoing Karabakh talks continue to flounder, but it could additionally result in a total failure of the rapprochement, which is currently going off the tracks.

The Azerbaijanis, not surprisingly, have a different outlook. They believe, as they have right from the start, that it is inconceivable for Turkey to open its border with Armenia as long as Armenia continues to occupy the seven districts that surround Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkey decided -- without pressure from Baku -- to close the border following the occupation of the Azerbaijani province of Kelbajar, and as far as Azerbaijan is concerned, it is therefore only logical and right that Turkey only reopens the border once Kelbajar has been liberated. This is clearly not going to happen any time soon -- particularly as the return of Kelbajar is not straightforward. Even in the context of the “basic principles” which has as a first step the immediate return of five of the occupied Azerbaijani provinces, Kelbajar is not foreseen to be returned at that point. However, it is very unlikely that Turkey will delink the two processes at this point. Even though many in Ankara now regret the decision to link them. With elections on the horizon in 2011, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will put his own popularity before the reconciliation process. While Turkey will lose some credibility from the international community, Ankara views itself as too important a regional player these days -- particularly vis-a-vis the US, to be overly concerned with this.

Furthermore, while both Azerbaijanis and Armenians see confidence building measures (CBM) as being crucial to regaining trust between the two countries and their peoples, the concept of what sort of CBMs is very different for each side. Again, Azerbaijan cites that the return of the occupied territories should be considered as such a CBM, while Armenia says this is impossible as the return of these provinces is one of the four key issues in the resolution of the conflict and therefore cannot be seen as a CBM. Rather, Armenia suggests CBMs to focus on sharing water or environmental concerns. Azerbaijan will not agree to look at any other type of CBM until its provinces have been liberated.

The Russian representative present said that Russia continued to support a solution to Nagorno-Karabakh, citing that Russia’s main interest was in increased regional stability. However, until now Russia has been something of a “status quo” actor in this conflict and others in the former soviet space, so the Kremlin is not going to be pressuring either side to any great extent. Russians wants to be seen as though they are playing a constructive role, in comparison to the role they have played in South Ossetia and Abkhazia but at the same time they could do far more if they really wanted to.

Overall, the picture looks very bleak unless some courageous decisions are taken, and taken soon. If all three countries (Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan) continue to stick to their positions, it seems very unlikely that anything will change but, rather, the situation in the region may deteriorate further and another war should not be totally ruled out. Can any one of these three countries step up to the bar and lead the way? Let’s hope so.