FP  Azerbaijan plans to nearly double its military expenditures for the coming year, according to an announcement by the Azerbaijani finance minister yesterday. Much of this money will be directed towards "modernizing the Azerbaijani military." Is this a prelude to a renewed round of fighting with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh?

Tensions have been heating up along the border between Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh, with a number of skirmishes in the past few months that have left soldiers from both sides dead. And peace negotiations, which are supposed to be mediated by Russia, the U.S. and France, don't seem to be going anywhere.

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a brutal war over Nagorno-Karabakh War from 1998 to 1994. In the end, the territory was declared independent (Yerevan's preferred outcome) and subsequently was cleansed of ethnic Azeris and re-populated with Armenians from Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan lost around 10 percent of its territory.

But that war took place just as the Soviet Union was coming apart, when both countries were fledgling Soviet republics. Things might look a little different this time around. Azerbaijan's GDP is around $46.13 billion, compared with Armenia's $11.92 billion. Baku enjoys good relations with all of its neighbors, including Russia, Iran, Georgia, and Turkey, as well as foreign powers like the United States and China. Armenia, meanwhile, is a lot less loved. Relations with Georgia are tepid and with Turkey they're non-existent. Armenia does, however, host Russian military bases (and they produce a lot of brandy for the Russian market).

Of course, it's possible, even likely, that nothing will happen in the South Caucasus any time soon. But if it does, it looks like Azerbaijan will be ready.