ArmeniaNow Warning against an “accidental war”, the International Crisis Group released a report on Tuesday in which it said a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan has become more likely over the past year due to diplomatic breakdown over Nagorno-Karabakh.

In its report “Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War”, ICG notes that Azerbaijan is experiencing an arms build up from revenue inflated by high oil prices, which may decrease in the near future, making it more urgent for the Azeris to act military while its war chest is guaranteed.

“The Azerbaijani leadership says the primary purpose of its military build-up is to pressure Armenia into diplomatic compromise. But it should also recognize it has an objective interest to accept measures to make the situation on the line of contact more transparent, less deadly, and more controllable.

“More weapons are likely to exacerbate an already fragile situation. Russia, as the leading mediator in this conflict, should cease supplying offensive arms and technology to the parties, and others should adhere to the arms embargoes recommended by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the UN. . . . The sides should begin to reverse the dangerous trends by signing a document on basic principles for resolving the conflict peacefully and undertaking confidence building steps to reduce tensions and avert a resumption of fighting.”

Predicting that neither side would win “quickly or easily”, ICG says the increase of “vitriolic rhetoric” along with the escalation of arms is a deadly mix that could see skirmishes turn into all-out battle and should therefore be prevented. It added that maintaining the status quo (a cease fire implemented in 1994), is damaging to Azerbaijan and therefore encourages aggression.

“Lack of progress in the peace talks is increasing the likelihood of an accidental war at any time or an all-out offensive within the next few years”, said Sabine Freizer, ICG’s Europe Program Director. “Russia, the U.S., Turkey and the European Union should make preventing this scenario a high priority”.