Nonetheless, it is reasonable to assume that no principal progress will be made in the Karabakh conflict settlement.

This prognosis is made based on the tendency that has now become a pattern by which the activity of conflicting sides and mediating international structures drops to a minimum during an election year.

Quite interestingly, presidential elections will be held in 2012 in all the three co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group in charge of finding ways to settle the Karabakh issue.

March 4 will see the presidential elections in Russia. They will be the first in the history of that country when a country leader will be elected for a 6-year term. This is why a fierce competition is expected, since the majority of Russia’s oppositional parties view these elections as the last chance to change the situation in the country and break the monopoly of the ruling party.

At the moment we can only guess how heated the passions will be in Russia in the spring of 2012 and maybe in summer as well: a potential run-off cannot be ruled out.

The chances are high that in the first half of 2012 Moscow as OSCE MG co-chair will find itself in a position when “it couldn’t care less for Karabakh”; especially taking into account that presidential elections are scheduled for spring also in France – the second co-chair of Minsk Group.

Presidential elections in France will be held on April 22 (first round) and May 6 (run-off, if needed). Here too the chances for a run-off are rather high.

The ruling Union for a Popular Movement party is planning to have president Nikolas Sarkozy run for presidency; prime-minister Francois Fillon believes Sarkozy is the right-wing's “best candidate” for the elections.

However, his positions (equally as positions of leaders of many states in a period of a global economic crisis) have been tangibly shaken; and with the traditionally strong influence of socialist parties on French society, analysts predict a tough fight for the office here as well.

Socialists themselves still have to decide on their candidate and that's a complicated process. And besides, Democratic Movement and National Front will also take a active part in the election.

Hence, in the first half of 2012, both Russia and France will be busy with their internal affairs.

The second half of the year will see the focus of campaign and election activities shift to the Western hemisphere: the 57th presidential elections will be held on November 6 in the United States. Democratic President Barack Obama will be running for a second term.

Accordingly, the whole calendar year of 2012 will host elections in the three MG co-chairing countries, which brings potential productivity of mediation efforts in the Karabakh issue to a minimum.

Apparently the Karabakh issue cannot be settled within this or that scheduled week, and it is largely connected to the layout of forces on the world political arena and internal affairs of each of the mediating countries.

And besides, 2012 is an election year for Armenia too; parliamentary elections will be held on May 6, promising to be a complicated and, perhaps, even dramatic political event. This, in turn, cannot contribute to the activation of the negotiation process of the Karabakh issue.