ArmeniaNow  --  2011 became a year of practical freezing of political negotiations on the Karabakh settlement and intensified efforts to prevent the use of force and to build confidence measures.

During the year that saw the recognition of South Sudan as an independent state, leaders in Karabakh stated that, in parallel with the negotiations, it will begin diplomatic work for the international recognition of the republic.

The results could be felt already in autumn as Uruguay’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Luis Almagro stated, unexpectedly for many, that his country backs Nagorno-Karabakh’s self-determination. As a result, the Karabakh online newspaper Artsakhnews recognized the Uruguayan foreign minister as the Man of the Year.

The first flight from a newly built airport in Stepanakert had been announced for May. However, Azerbaijan warned both directly and indirectly that it would shoot even at civilian aircraft. Despite the fact that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said that he would become the first passenger of a Yerevan-Stepanakert flight, no such flight has been operated yet.

Meanwhile, the international mediators have tried or pretended to be trying to reach a political settlement, suggesting that the parties agree on basic principles. The presidents of Russia, the United States and France, the three main mediating powers as part of the OSCE Minsk Group, met on the sidelines of a G8 summit in Deauville, France, and issued only one joint statement from there and that statement concerned Karabakh.

The Deauville statement revealed and subsequent statements elaborated on the approximate basic principles that needed to be agreed upon by the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The principles were largely taken as unacceptable in Armenia because of a perceived unacceptable compromise. For the first time actions of protests against possible concessions that could be made at a tripartite meeting of the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia in Kazan were staged.

But the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev-mediated round of talks in Kazan ended in a failure of the sides to agree on the principles of settlement, and that development, perhaps, has nullified the so-called Madrid principles of settlement as well as Russian leadership in the international mediation efforts. It became clear that Armenia would not give up Karabakh’s independent status, while Baku did not accept that option. Even Russia’s pressure could not change that position. Although Moscow later sent new proposals to Yerevan and Baku through its Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, nothing major happened afterwards.

The year was also marked by a new escalation of tensions along the line of contact in Karabakh. Ceasefire violations became more frequent and major deadly incidents would happen almost every month. At the same time, Azerbaijan would strongly decline appeals from mediators, as well as Armenia and even the UN secretary-general and the spiritual leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia for the withdrawal of snipers from the front lines. At the same time, Armenia warned that if Azerbaijan unleashed a new war, it would only hasten the recognition of Karabakh, which will come out of this new war an even stronger side.

Tensions continued unabated even in autumn, leading to Armenia stating it was opting for a ‘disproportionate response’ to the provocations of Azerbaijan. After the killing of two Armenian soldiers by Azerbaijani snipers the Armenian side stated that it had also carried out special operations, during which it destroyed several times more manpower of the enemy.

After the failure of mediation initiatives the Minsk Group negotiators began to work for the preservation of the status quo and preventing the escalation of tensions along the line of contact. The mediating troika stopped offering principles for a settlement, concessions and other similar things, while concentrating more on confidence-building measures. Perhaps this is due to the fact that 2012 will be a year of elections in Russia, the United States and France, as well as in Armenia, Karabakh and Azerbaijan.

No news is still good news. The year can be considered successful in the sense that there were no sharp turns, which could lead to a sharp escalation of tensions or even a new war in Karabakh, especially during a very tense period when there is an increased risk of a major war in the region involving Iran, Israel, the United States and possibly other Western powers.