/Tert.am/ Yevgeny Minchenko, director of the Russia-based International Institute for Political Expertise, in an interview with Azerbaijani news agency News.Az, said that the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict via military means was 70% likely.

Asked if he thought if the “superpowers” would allow Azerbaijan to begin a war in Nagorno-Karabakh and whether the Russian military base in Armenia will intervene, Minchenko said:

“Some of the superpowers (in particular, separate elite groups in the United States) may view a protracted military conflict as a pressure factor on the wider Middle East, on the one hand, and on Russia and the Russia–Old European countries unit, on the other. As for the involvement of the Russian military base in Armenia in the conflict, I think this is more likely if it is attacked.”

In the analyst’s opinion, the Kremlin has an interest in the settlement of the conflict, and in preserving good relations with both Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the same time, in Minchenko’s opinion, it’s a great delusion to think that the conflict settlement lies with Russia.

“Russia was unlucky in being so big and involved in a great many of its neighbours' conflicts and even in remote countries by the very fact of its existence. Russia’s influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan is quite limited, like its influence on Iran or North Korea,” said the institute director.

According to the News.Az interviewer, “If the Armenian-Turkish border is opened, the US will try to use Ankara to pull Yerevan out of Moscow’s influence. Russia will lose Yerevan like it lost Georgia. In turn, Azerbaijan is building its partner relations both with Russia and the United States. Don’t you think that Moscow would benefit from trying to settle the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to keep Azerbaijan and Yerevan in its sphere of influence?”

In response, Minchenko stated that the game Russia plays in the region is more complex. In his words, “It is not limited to Karabakh. See how relations between Russia and Turkey are changing today. I think an attempt to settle the Karabakh conflict by way of force would be perceived extremely negatively in Moscow.”

(1026+766)